Can Europe Rely on the United States for Defense?

Getty Images shows US troops participating in a NATO joint military exercise in Bulgaria during 2023. European leaders are now stunned by the open rapprochement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as subtle hints suggesting that the US may abandon its commitment to defend European allies.

After World War Two, Western European countries joined with the US and Canada to establish NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in order to counterbalance the then-Soviet Union. The alliance’s famous Article 5 stipulates that member nations will come to the defense of an ally under attack. Historically, the United States has served as the anchor within NATO; however, questions are now being openly raised about its future – most recently by Friedrich Merz, who is set to become Germany’s chancellor. Merz stated his goal would be achieving independence from the US in terms of security.

“The events over the past week have shown that Trump has undermined NATO, undermined its secretary general and undermines Article 5 of collective defense,” said Armida van Rij, head of Europe program at UK-based think tank Chatham House. “What started as an all-for-one and one-for-all mentality is now broken.”

Questions remain about what NATO’s future holds given the current geopolitical climate: Why isn’t Ukraine a member? What has President Trump said regarding its membership?

NATO’s Article 5, which outlines collective defense obligations among members, remains in effect; however, some experts argue that it may not hold much weight. While the US government maintains that it is committed to NATO and remains dedicated to European security partnerships, it has warned of an imbalanced relationship where dependency on other nations exists.

Under Trump’s administration, financial contributions from European allies have been repeatedly called into question. In fact, there were instances last year when President Trump openly encouraged Putin to invade those who failed to meet their financial obligations. What is alarming for experts is how this message has been conveyed amid the ongoing war in Ukraine – Europe’s greatest security crisis since World War Two.

Trump’s administration appears to have shifted its position regarding Russia, aligning with some of the country’s objectives. This includes praising President Putin and initiating talks between the US and Russia that exclude Ukrainian officials as well as European allies. Additionally, there has been criticism directed at Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky while repeating Russian narratives about who started the war.

Article 5 of NATO has traditionally required member states to come to each other’s defense if attacked; however, its application is not necessarily literal in terms of troop deployment. For example, during an Estonian invasion by Russia, sending a single surveillance plane could satisfy Article 5’s obligations under the letter – though it falls short on the spirit. It remains unclear whether this interpretation will be accepted moving forward.

The United States plays a dominant role within NATO, contributing about 70% of its military budget and personnel. This has historically been seen as a cornerstone for Europe’s security; however, Trump’s administration may signal changes in how Washington approaches alliances like NATO.

As Germany prepares to move forward under new leadership, the shift towards greater independence from American support is palpable. Merz expressed that his primary priority would be strengthening Europe and achieving self-sufficiency where possible. Questions have also arisen about whether future NATO discussions will involve revisiting or reforming current structures.

The US’s evolving position with respect to its allies, particularly in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has profound implications for global security dynamics. Experts suggest that this represents a significant shift in the international order moving forward.